17/8/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, PB Lawrence Stakes day

Nine races have been set down for Caulfield on Saturday for PB Lawrence Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

3 Dipsy Doodle (Bet Now: $4.50) has a tricky gate to overcome but she does have a touch of quality and strong form around her. Attempted to lead throughout at Rosehill last time and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when a narrow second to Cosmonova. Tricky draw, but should press forward and won’t mind give in the track.

Danger

10 Mighty (Bet Now: $15.00) is three weeks between runs for Moody/Coleman since contesting the Lightning at Morphettville when back off the speed and kept chasing in defeat when a close up fourth to Lingani. First up effort when bolting up at Sandown was sharp and off that run, she commands respect.

Long Shot

5 Shaime (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing really well for Cliff Brown. Strong winner down the straight a fortnight back down the straight at Flemington where she knuckled down with purpose late to wear down Kiko and get the win, just. Racing really well this time in and commands respect.

Back Me

2 Keats (Bet Now: $17.00), I think, is wound up to run really well fresh. He resumes, having not raced since March 16 at this track/distance when producing an end of prep run in the Anniversary Vase. He has been given extensive jumpout work, so he’s ready to go IMO and should lead for fun. Hard to beat.

Danger

3 Devoted (Bet Now: $4.20) commands respect. His effort in defeat two weeks back at Flemington was enormous given he was wide no cover, doing work, chasing, but he kept finding when second to Gentleman Roy. If that run hasn’t busted him, he has to be rated as one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

8 Kettle Hill (Bet Now: $34.00) is several weeks between runs for Ciaron Maher since racing over 1700m here where he just got too far back in the run and was never really a factor behind British Columbia. He has been hit and miss throughout his career so not sure I could back him to win but he could pinch first four.

Back Me

Going to speck 9 Le Mans (Bet Now: $8.00) each way. Former UK mare that makes her Aussie debut for Price/Kent. Her best form is over further but has had three jumpouts in readiness and the recent one was very good, finishing fourth and moved with real purpose. Keen to see how she goes in what looks a thin race.

Danger

11 Alectrona (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Team McEvoy trained mare that was good in defeat here two back on testing ground before going to the Pakenham Synthetic where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, winning quite comfortably. Back in town, confidence is up, hard to beat.

Long Shot

1 Justdoit (Bet Now: $17.00) is in career best form for Luke Oliver and is one of the leading contenders. Strong win from her a fortnight back at Flemington where she got a sweet sit on speed outside Belle Et Riche before taking the front and showed good ticker late to fend them off and win. Harder here, but flying and is genuine.

Back Me

15 I Miss Margie (Bet Now: $12.00) is a daughter of Deep Field for Busuttin/Young that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since April 3 when ending the prep on a high with a dominant win at Ballarat over 1000m. Jumpout work has been pretty good and she is a mare who can sprint well on the fresh side. Watch the market.

Danger

11 Prinzerro (Bet Now: $5.00) looks suited back to 1100m. Phillip Stokes trained gelding that ran over 1200m here last time out when just off the speed and tried hard but 1200m finds him out behind Piastri. Back to 1100m I like and his best is more than good enough.

Long Shot

13 Mansiere (Bet Now: $6.00) is a definite threat. Pattern was in his corner but he was arrogant when resuming with a win at Sale before going to 1000m at Flemington a few weeks back behind Moonhaven when held but I thought he didn’t disgrace himself at all in defeat. Harder here, but he has the engine under the hood to measure up.

Back Me

The value for me clearly is with 4 Wonder Boy (Bet Now: $3.40). His win on debut at Flemington was superb, giving them a start and a beating. Freshened up and his jumpout at Mornington alongside Giga Kick was very good. He’ll be very strong late, residual fitness and has enormous upside/scope.

Danger

6 Winchester (Bet Now: $16.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. He resumed at the midweeks at Sandown where he got the front and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Harder here but he’s got the fitness edge and will give a sight.

Long Shot

5 Band Of Brothers (Bet Now: $5.50) is one that I can entertain for exotics. He ran three weeks back over 1200m here when leading, copping heat on speed and although beaten late, his effort in defeat was more than sound in a race which looked to have depth. Back to 1100m, on speed, he’ll run well I am sure.

Back Me

Giving respect to 1 Drifting (Bet Now: $2.90) for Peter Snowden. Quality filly who has looked to have come back in outstanding order, trialling up sharply with a win at Warwick Farm before a Flemington jumpout when second against older horses, beaten by Arkansaw Kid but moved well. Has to carry the penalty but has class.

Danger

5 Kuroyanagi (Bet Now: $2.60) is the one with fitness on her side, having resumed at Morphettville in the Lightning where she looked the winner when she surged out wide but was nabbed late by Lingani, who was hard fit and in form. Back to her own age/sex, good record at Caulfield, kind map, Kah sticks, she ticks a lot of boxes.

Long Shot

9 Berezka (Bet Now: $26.00) is a slight query back to 1100m but she will be stronger than most at the end. She ran over 1200m here three weeks back where she got left flat footed when the sprint went on but her finale was very good. Reckon she’ll love getting up in vs back in trip, but if they go silly in front, she can launch.

Back Me

11 Maotai (Bet Now: $5.50) has always been a talented horse but he’s had a few loose screws upstairs. He is now with Moody/Coleman and he has looked great, jumping out super and confirming that promise with a dominant win down the straight two weeks ago at Flemington. Good test here, but confident he can measure up.

Danger

8 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Team Hayes trained four year old that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Adelaide Carnival when on speed and fighting on superbly in the Goodwood behind Benedetta. Good record at Caulfield and his jumpout work has been quite strong.

Long Shot

2 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $11.00) should prove hard to beat for Danny O’Brien. He has been in work a little while but is holding his form really well. He comes through the Aurie’s Star at Flemington a fortnight back where he got off the speed and kept chasing when third to the very much in form Right To Party. In form, racing well, leading contender.

Back Me

IMO there is clear intent here with 4 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $11.00) and I reckon if he’s going to win a Stakes race this prep, it’s here. No Pride Of Jenni and yes, Gentleman Roy is here, but Buffalo River can lead that horse for fun if given a squeeze and with three jumpouts, there is intent, plus with heavy rain on Friday, the track could have the edge off and he loves getting his toe in.

Danger

6 Pinstriped (Bet Now: $8.00) is a big watch here. Concede he likely has eyes on the Memsie second up, but he has looked outstanding in several jumpouts, the latest at Cranbourne when off the speed but moved with real purpose late. He’s suited at WFA, has class…hard to beat.

Long Shot

7 Gentleman Roy (Bet Now: $5.00) will put himself on speed and take running down. His win at Flemington a fortnight back was outstanding. Sat on a strong speed, was trucking, before taking the lead and he was strong to the line in winning. He’s a beauty when right and now off a win, commands respect.

Back Me

16 Elouyou (Bet Now: $2.05) looks hard to beat. Scott Cameron trained gelding that has been kept on ice since a win at Rosehill on June 29 where he looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments in the run, class kicked in and he was too good. Recent jumpout was sharp and he strikes a winnable race IMO.

Danger

8 The Open (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for Patrick Payne. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when near the speed and looked to be trucking in the run before taking the front and looked home but had no answers late for noted swimmer Rhapsody Chic. Racing in super form and stable is flying.

Long Shot

13 Regardsmaree (Bet Now: $81.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He ran at this track/distance three weeks back where he just got too far out of his ground but did make up headway and was pretty good in defeat. Not sure he is going well enough to win but can finish top four.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 16 Elouyou

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Drifting

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Buffalo River

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 9, 11

Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 11

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Four: 8, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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Source: justhorseracing.com.au

George Barham

George Barham, an accomplished journalist and avid gambling enthusiast, serves as the esteemed Editor-in-Chief at fly-to-australia.com, Australia’s leading source for comprehensive gambling news and insights. With an unwavering passion for both the written word and the ever-evolving world of betting and gaming, George brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the helm of our editorial team.