Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas has found a $11 winning chance at The Valley on Saturday

Tony Thomas finds the early value for The Valley on Saturday.


HEDGED is probably at his right price around the $3.40 mark but still happy to be on him. He’s been gelded and he looked a different horse in a Cranbourne jumpout recently, winning by a space and hardly out of second gear. Know he has to repeat it on raceday but the signs are good and he looks promising. EPIC PROPORTIONS was only just run down at Randwick as favourite last start and looks overs at the $6 mark.

SUGGESTED BET: Hedged to win at $3.40. Take 2,3,5,9 in box quinellas/exactas/trifectas.

TIPS: Hedged 1, Epic Proportions 2, Archo Nacho 3, Prinzerro 4.


Great value here with ZOUSUKO at $13. Already had some specking at big odds. Beat home Exploring back in February and looked very good in a recent trial. Gets the blinkers on and expected to get a gun run from inside draw. SPICY MARGS will cross to lead and should take running down.

SUGGESTED BET: Zousuko each-way at $13.

TIPS: Zousuko 1, Spicy Margs 2, Malaboom 3, Tiz Enuff 4.


Good value here with TOKENIST at the $11 mark. Think he will start shorter. Big run last start after sitting three wide for the first half of the race and then forced to sit outside the leader before the effort told in the straight behind Torranzino at Caulfield. Comes back in distance here, draws better to be close to the speed and gets his chance. ANOTHER WIL drops 5.5kg after a soft maiden win at Moe but goes up in class and faces a firm track. May be under the odds.

SUGGESTED BET: Tokenist each-way at $11.

TIPS: Tokenist 1, Another Wil 2, Elsie May 3, He’ll Rip 4.

Torranzino wins at Caulfield. Picture: Reg Ryan-Racing Photos via Getty Images


TORRANZINO does go up 4kg on the back of his impressive win at Caulfield three weeks ago but he looks a talented stayer on the rise. Did plenty wrong in the run and still able to beat Moveforlex, who then came out and won last week. The slight query would be whether The Valley will suit him or not but prepared to take the $4.40 to find out. GOTTABESAVVY is close to a win and suited with the claim, while SO SLEEK maps to get the gun run again.

SUGGESTED BET: Torranzino to win at $4.40

TIPS: Torranzino 1, Gottabesavvy 2, So Sleek 3, Magnaspin 4.


KEATS looks the only leader in the race and he should be able to dictate terms to suit, stack them up before the 600m, sprint on the point of the bend and then hold on to win. Well, that’s the plan and fingers crossed. Taking $4 in the small field is good value as I reckon he will start shorter. MILFORD was just nabbed by Young Werther in a stronger race last start and is close to a win but he has the big weight. Blinkers back on. BERMADEZ is getting close to showing his best.

SUGGESTED BET: Keats to win at $4.

TIPS: Keats 1, Milford 2, Bermadez 3, Flash Flood 4.


FERAGO and STRAWBERRY ROCK fought out the finish of this race last year and reckon they can do it again. Ferago tried hard last week behind Teewaters. It was his first run for a month and the fact he is backing up here suits. Also drawn to get the gun run and $6.50 looks overs to me. STRAWBERRY ROCK is racing well and like the fact he has had a freshen up.

SUGGESTED BET: Ferago to win at $6.50

TIPS: Ferago 1, Strawberry Rock 2, Thorin 3, Jaykayann 4.


THE SUMMIT is $10 with TAB but you may be able to find longer elsewhere. He looks a tremendous each way bet to me. He is a class animal when right, with two Group 1 placings in France, albeit three years ago. Didn’t quite measure up in Hong Kong but liked his Aussie debut when he made ground behind Unusual Culture at Flemington. Since had a jumpout where he cruised along in grand style. Draws perfectly and he is well worth the gamble. JIMMY THE BEAR is cherry ripe and just needs luck from a sticky draw.

SUGGESTED BET: The Summit each-way at $10.

TIPS: The Summit 1, Jimmy The Bear 2, Chief Altony 3, Urban Oasis 4.

MRC First Renewal Michael Grumley Hcp

Jimmy The Bear, ridden by Billy Egan, wins at Caulfield. Picture: Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images


With DEFIANT DIVA, you know what you are going to get. A real little trier. She found clear galloping room a little too late but rocketed home to just miss Delicious Tycoon at Flemington. Draws perfectly to get a soft run and ready to break through. $3.90 is okay but probably not much shorter than that. DIVINE DIOSA is backing up after catching the eye late behind Hell Hound last week and looks good value.

SUGGESTED BET: Defiant Diva to win at $3.90.

TIPS: Defiant Diva 1, Divine Diosa 2, Delicious Tycoon 3, Chandon Burj 4.


PEREILLE is the three-year-old taking on older horses here and he looks pretty short at $2.50. I’d prefer around $3. He is the one to beat for sure on the strength of a strong effort at Hillside last start when he had to change course a couple of times in the straight. The value could be with STRIPPED BACK. He has been plagued by wet tracks and the firm surface here will see him improve sharply.

SUGGESTED BET: Stripped Back each way at $9.

TIPS: Pereille 1, Stripped Back 2, Kaliuwaa Falls 3, Shalaman 4.

BEST BET: Keats (race 5)

BEST VALUE: The Summit (race 7)


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