27/4/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, The Showdown day

Caulfield will conduct a ten event program on Saturday, headlined by The Showdown (1200m). Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

16 Tiffany Valentine (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Distaff so staying to this level, she clearly appeals. She ran three weeks back in the Oracle Son race, beaten just over a length by the stablemate, but I really liked the way she finished her race off. If she can settle closer, she’ll be hard to hold out.

Danger

12 White Bear (Bet Now: $4.80) commands respect for Michael Moroney. He has raced over this track/distance his past two, the latest being three weeks ago where he seemingly had every chance from just off the speed, beaten under a length by Oracle Son. He was ridden with a sit there…I think more positive ride, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

9 Zion (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He resumed over 1000m at Cranbourne where he got back to near last in the run and spotted those in front a tidy start but he was very good late in the piece without threatening behind Manhattan Thunder. Has run in town previously so he’s in with a shout.

Back Me

8 Moya Lass (Bet Now: $4.60) jumps straight to 1800m, which I find interesting. Julius Sandhu trained mare that resumed over 1400m at Sandown where she was given a peach by J Kah and in a driving finish, she was too good and was impressive. Tricky gate and rising in trip, but she has good upside and a touch of quality.

Danger

11 Splash Back (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is an Andrew Bobbin trained mare that has an engine under the hood. She resumed a few weeks ago over 1400m where she gave them a start and a beating, getting held up at times before eventually getting clear and she dashed late to win and win well. She’s heading in the right direction and can take this out without surprising.

Long Shot

10 Smokin Princess (Bet Now: $5.00) is flying for Michelle Payne. This girl has won her past two, both over the mile at Pakenham, where each time she has given them a start and a beating to finish best and get the job done nicely. Good test here at Saturday metro level but hard to knock the way she’s going.

Back Me

3 Barbie’s Fox (Bet Now: $4.80) has class on her side and I’ll bank on class getting that home. This mare comes through the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick where she was safely held but far from disgraced in defeat behind Zougotcha. Bit of rain forecast this week would be ideal for this mare because she loves getting her toe in. Edge off the track, back miles in grade/depth, like her a lot.

Danger

1 Pounding (Bet Now: $2.45) is the best horse in the race. Just not sure where he gets to from the map and that is the only reason why I am not declaring him. He resumed in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley on Good Friday and was very good late from the back, charging to just miss out on picking up Savannah Cloud. Up in trip, fitter, class factor…clearly likeable.

Long Shot

7 New York Hurricane (Bet Now: $10.00) has come back in really good order for Liam Howley and rates highly. He ran a fortnight back at Bendigo over the mile and kept chasing in a good effort but was clearly no match late for Coco Sun. Staying at the mile is interesting…not sure he has the class but a must for multiples.

Back Me

4 Extratwo (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Ciaron Maher trained mare that is racing in just about career best form. She was a dominant winner two back at The Valley before going to Bendigo two weeks back where she seemingly had every chance from just off the speed but found one better in a nice horse, Chorlton Lane. Should be around the mark.

Danger

2 Papillon Club (Bet Now: $6.50) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Greg Eurell. She ran in the Bendigo Bracelet a fortnight back where she should have been right in the finish but didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight when wanting to build the revs. First up run behind Extratwo was encouraging so I think she’ll be a threat with luck from the gate.

Long Shot

6 Oh Too Good (Bet Now: $9.50) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but she is a mare on the up and has promise. She won at Yarra Valley on Good Friday, getting a sweet sit in transit under Lane before angling into clear and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found and was too good. Good test here, but confident she measures up.

Back Me

2 Magnaspin (Bet Now: $6.50) comes here with fresh legs for Team Corstens, several weeks between runs since a strong win over 2040m at The Valley where he led throughout and he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. He has versatility re racing pattern, he loves 2000m and this isn’t a deep race.

Danger

4 Berkeley Square (Bet Now: $2.50) is three weeks between runs for Dan O’Sullivan since contesting the Easter Cup at this track/distance. He got back to near last in the run and did make up headway but was never really threatening behind Captain Envious. Month between runs so with room for improvement, he’s in the mix for sure.

Long Shot

1 Teewaters (Bet Now: $31.00) loves these VOBIS races and looks well suited here despite potentially needing maybe 2400m. He resumed two weeks back in the Golden Mile at Bendigo where he got back and found them too sharp when down the track behind El Soleado. Loves Caulfield, strong late, fitter…not dismissing him.

Back Me

6 Elphinstone (Bet Now: $3.20) has done little wrong this time in for Team McEvoy. Looked a good thing in a Ballarat maiden fresh and duly saluted before going to the Bendigo Guineas two weeks ago where she was very good in defeat when closing off to finish second to War Machine. Hard fit now, can settle closer and the form around her does read well enough.

Danger

2 Modown (Bet Now: $3.00) is starting to put it together for Charlotte Littlefield. This gelding was a strong winner two back at Pakenham before going to the Bendigo Guineas two weeks back where he was a real eye catcher, getting back to near last in the run and made up really good headway late in the piece behind War Machine. Like him up in trip and hard to beat if he can settle closer in the run.

Long Shot

8 Hey Bella (Bet Now: $34.00) looks to have returned in really good order for Luke Oliver and is one of the knockout hopes. Market kept her safe in betting when she resumed over 1300m at Cranbourne in a maiden. She got into a lovely spot under Moor before angling clear and she got better as the race went on. No issue with the mile…class maybe, but all upside and is a first four contender.

Back Me

Why can’t 5 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $4.80) beat these? This is the easiest race he has contested…in forever it feels like. He hasn’t raced since the William Reid where he bombed the start and that sealed his fate behind Imperatriz. He won’t know himself in a race like this and given his record, he just looks absolutely thrown in.

Danger

7 Semillion (Bet Now: $8.00) is an enigma but the talent is there. He was a month between runs when racing two weeks back over 1100m at Bendigo. He was on speed throughout and tried his guts out but the gap between runs, I reckon condition just gave way late in the piece behind Senegalia. Fitter and up to 1200m, I am not dismissing him.

Long Shot

1 Jigsaw (Bet Now: $5.50) has the runs on the board and commands respect. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Good Friday when close up in defeat in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley. His best is clearly good enough and with an on speed racing style, class factor, he’ll take running down.

Back Me

8 Bold Bastille (Bet Now: $1.65) is the slight knock for Bold Bastille but ability wise, she has a few lengths on these. That was evident in the Gold Rush at Bendigo two weeks ago where she was Winx-like odds and duly saluted, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. That was 1000m…if she can stretch her brilliance to 1200m, she wins.

Danger

9 Herastar (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Dean Krongold trained filly that debuted with a Stakes win at Morphettville in the Cinderella before going to the Gold Rush at Bendigo where the market said she was there for a barrier trial and duly ran that way, getting back and failing to make up any real headway behind Bold Bastille. 1200m I like and with a more positive steer, she’s dangerous.

Long Shot

14 Mrs Archibald (Bet Now: $61.00) is a nice filly for Jason Warren. Debuted under the lights at Cranbourne when attempting to lead throughout and giving a very good sight but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Brighella, before a good effort on the Heath track here last Wednesday. With her racing style, she’ll be around the mark.

Back Me

1 Hedged (Bet Now: $1.90) wins this surely? He ran two weeks ago in the Arrowfield Sprint at Randwick and you can make a case to say he should have won, getting held up at the wrong time before eventually getting clear and charging late, just missing out on picking Joliestar. That has to be the right form for this.

Danger

5 Moby Dick (Bet Now: $3.30) looks to have an engine under the hood. Created an impression in a couple of electric wins at Pakenham before going to Bendigo where he got back and took a while to wind into his work but charged late and just missed out on the win when a narrow second to Atlantic Spirit. Back up to 1200m, he appeals.

Long Shot

2 Celui (Bet Now: $15.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek, which is what he did two weeks back at Bendigo when leading and he looked the winner for a few strides but couldn’t quite see it through when third to Atlantic Spirit. 1200m is the query but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

Back Me

9 Devoted (Bet Now: $10.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He resumed in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley…well, I say he trialled there, because he didn’t get out at any stage in the straight and just forget he went around behind Savannah Cloud. He’ll love the rise in trip, he has change up speed and a touch of quality to measure up.

Danger

15 So Risque (Bet Now: $4.80) is a beauty for Team Hayes. He comes here with fresh legs, with his last race being on March 2 at Flemington where he seemingly had every chance from just off the speed but couldn’t get past the very much in form Arran Bay. Good track/distance record, down in the weights, presses forward…likeable.

Long Shot

17 Wineglass Bay (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Dec 9 at Randwick when perhaps just failing at 2000m at Stakes level behind Baby Rider. He is better suited over slightly further but has jumped out well leading in and can sprint well fresh. One for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Hedged

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Bold Bastille

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 The Astrologist

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 9, 14, 15, 17

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Source: justhorseracing.com.au

George Barham

George Barham, an accomplished journalist and avid gambling enthusiast, serves as the esteemed Editor-in-Chief at fly-to-australia.com, Australia’s leading source for comprehensive gambling news and insights. With an unwavering passion for both the written word and the ever-evolving world of betting and gaming, George brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the helm of our editorial team.