17/2/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning day

Group l racing at Flemington returns this Saturday where it is Lightning Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

7 Star Vega (Bet Now: $3.20) is unknown at 2000m but he’s racing as if he will eat it up. He has run over 1800m his past four, the latest being at Caulfield two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and made up solid headway without threatening behind El Soleado. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll still be effective late and I do think Flemington 2000m will suit his racing style ideally.

Danger

3 Aramco (Bet Now: $2.05) is clearly likeable against these. This gelding gave them a spanking at this track/distance last start. Yes, was helped by the pattern and he didn’t beat much but he made an absolute mess of them from the front in an awesome display. More quality here, but looks the leader and will be tough to get past.

Long Shot

2 El Soleado (Bet Now: $4.60) is flying for Robbie Laing and rates highly. He has won his past two, winning here two back before going to the Caulfield race mentioned above where he got a peach steer from Zahra and in a driving finish, he was too good. Racing like 2000m suits, maps to do no work and gets J Kah. Likeable.

Back Me

3 Wiggum (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Travis Doudle trained three year old that is a few weeks between runs since racing down the straight here where he didn’t quite get the rub of the green so forgive and forget the run behind Mornington Glory. Draws out so should get clear air from the outset and his prior efforts, especially down the straight, suggest he’ll take beating.

Danger

8 Plus Fours (Bet Now: $7.00) has returned in super order for Phillip Stokes and in an open race, I think he’ll take beating against these. This gelding was knocking on the door to win and that win came on the home deck at Pakenham last time, leading throughout over 1000m and he spanked them in a sharp display. Has run well at Saturday metro level previously and strikes a winnable race.

Long Shot

10 Dollar Chaser (Bet Now: $26.00) will likely be spotting them a start but should be strong at the end. He ran a few weeks back down the Flemington straight over 1200m where he got back to near last and was never really a winning threat but finished off his race quite strong behind Southern Fire. If he’s within range, he has the finale to be dangerous.

Back Me

4 Pro Forma (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me. GaiBott trained colt that was met with big support at short odds when debuting at Canberra over 1000m. He justified the weight of support, leading throughout and gave nothing else a look in to win comfortably. Extra 100m should be fine, good racing style and is drawn to get clear air from the outset.

Danger

2 Counteroffensive (Bet Now: $4.80) looks suited to this level. I don’t think he’s good enough to be a Blue Diamond contender but this looks well within his reach. He attempted to lead throughout in the Chairmans two weeks ago and tired late after giving a sight when third to Coleman, who does look just about #1 seed for the Blue Diamond so IMO, that form reads very well for this and he’s in a leading 2YO camp.

Long Shot

6 Eject (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a lovely colt for Team Freedman that is on debut. This guy looked like he would be quite a force in the Spring/Summer but the stable spelled him. He’s come back this prep and he has looked just as impressive in trial/jumpout work. Seems to be very well educated and with a seemingly good racing style, he appeals.

Back Me

8 Magnaspin (Bet Now: $6.00) will love a rise to the mile for Team Corstens. This guy resumed with a bang when winning over 1300m at Sandown. He then went to 1400m at Caulfield where he was held up at times but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late in the piece. Hard fit now and getting to 1600m, he rates highly for sure.

Danger

4 Who Dares (Bet Now: $5.00) is racing well for Carey/Walker and is one of the leading contenders. He was several weeks between runs when racing over 1400m at Caulfield two weeks ago when sitting on speed and giving a pretty solid kick but couldn’t quite see it through. That said, not many can go with Jimmysstar it seems so running second to him is a big tick. Fitter, he appeals.

Long Shot

7 Japanese Emperor (Bet Now: $35.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Michael Moroney trained four year old that ran in the Jimmysstar race from a fortnight back where he got back to near last in the run and made up some ground but was never a winning factor. Like him up in distance and is dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

Back Me

I am a big fan of 10 Eternal Flame (Bet Now: $5.50) and I don’t see why she can’t run well here in a race where there are question marks on a number of them. She was wide no cover in a truly run race at Caulfield yet she moved up with purpose, took the front and dashed clear late for a dominant win. She is Stakes class for sure and I think she finds a winnable blacktype race.

Danger

8 Forbidden City (Bet Now: $19.00) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. This mare ran at this trip two weeks back at Caulfield when near the speed throughout and battled away well enough in defeat when third to a potential star, Jimmysstar. Has run well at Flemington previously and is hard fit. Not sure she wins but can pinch a first four spot.

Long Shot

11 Rivaport (Bet Now: $41.00) should prove hard to beat for Grahame Begg. This mare was first past the post when racing a few weeks ago at Flemington but given the interference she gave to others, she was relegated to third in a messy race. But, she is a mare who has come back in really good order and although she may want further, she has the engine under the hood to sneak a first four spot.

Back Me

6 French Endeavour (Bet Now: $15.00) is a good each way gamble. Talented filly for Matty Smith who resumed at Rosehill two weeks ago where she lacked change up speed but loved the way she warmed up late behind Wallenda. She has the run under the belt and will be strong late, plus getting to a bigger track, 1400m…all points to her running well.

Danger

3 Basilinna (Bet Now: $17.00) is a high quality filly for Team Browne that resumes. This girl did nice things in the Spring, highlighted by a strong effort in defeat in the Oaks behind a star, Zardozi. Ran second last in a Cranbourne trial but the last 100m and the way she ran through the line, she looks to be humming for another Oaks, but I think has enough class to be more than competitive here.

Long Shot

8 Thailess (Bet Now: $101.00) has earned a crack in town for Andrew Bobbin. This filly has won her past two, winning the maiden at Hamilton two back before proving that was no fluke with a strong win at Morphettville Parks last time. Good test here against likely types but she is a last start Saturday metro winner, hard fit and in form.

Back Me

2 King Colorado (Bet Now: $3.80) for me. He was fabulous when resuming in the Manfred on Australia Day at Caulfield, getting back in the run and making up good headway in the straight to run second to stablemate Brave Mead. He was in the wilderness I thought after a plain Spring but that was a super return and fitter, up to 1400m, it all points to him.

Danger

11 Hey Fat Cat (Bet Now: $12.00) is on the seven day back up for Robbie Laing after racing last Saturday in the Autumn Stakes where he bombed the start, which sealed his fate, so forgive and forget the run behind Storm Patrol. Think with a clean jump, he can settle in the first few and the stable is absolutely flying.

Long Shot

5 Ambassadorial (Bet Now: $15.00) is a city winner and has a touch of quality about him when right. GaiBott trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since the Super Impose in the Spring when down the track and looking a tired horse behind Riff Rocket, who of course went on to win the Derby. Lands on speed and will be tough to get past.

Back Me

Gee I think 8 I Am Unstoppable (Bet Now: $8.00) is absolutely humming. Kennewell/Yeomans trained three year old that looks to have returned in beast mode. Jumped out very well at Cranbourne before trialling there last week and I thought the way he trucked to the line…he’s going to run a beauty here I suggest and he does have a great record at the straight.

Danger

4 Imperatriz… (Bet Now: $2.50 SPECIAL ODDS @ GoldenRush) I think you just have to trust her and the runs she has on the board. Much has been made of the trial at Cranbourne and yes, she was plain, but as Mick Dee said after the trial, perhaps staying home at Cranbourne, she was comfortable and lazy in her work. She is the best sprinter in the land and she has too many credits in the bank to ignore.

Long Shot

5 Espiona (Bet Now: $17.00) is a ripping mare for Chris Waller. She put it together, finally, last season, and did run very well in defeat behind Imperatriz in the Champions Sprint. Trialled very well in Sydney and jumped out here last week, moving quite well. Likely will be spotting them a start but should be very strong at the end.

Back Me

12 Jimmysstar (Bet Now: $1.40) is a beauty and could well be a potential rising star. This will be a good test for him here at this level. He resumed two weeks ago at Caulfield where he looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, giving them an absolute spanking without really being fully extended under Shinn. Good room for improvement and he looks destined for better races than this. One to beat.

Danger

6 Crosshaven (Bet Now: $14.00) looks suited up to 1400m for Team Hayes. He has raced over 1200m his past couple, the latest being in the Australia Stakes at The Valley where he was beaten a half length by Veight in a strong effort, just missing out on the win. Rise to 1400m looks ideal, he has a good record at Flemington and is hard fit.

Long Shot

1 Not An Option (Bet Now: $15.00) tends to save his best for the Flemington 1400m so with that in mind, he commands some level of respect. He sat on speed in the John Dillon on Australia Day at Caulfield and kept finding, just failing to finish the race off when a close up fourth to Ayrton. Back to his pet track/distance, he’s in with a shout.

Back Me

13 Punch Lane (Bet Now: $2.60) is a very progressive animal. Team Freedman trained galloper that won two weeks ago at Caulfield and yes, he didn’t beat much, but the arrogance of the win was something else. He’s destined for better races, starting here, and I think he will eat up a truly run 1400m at Flemington.

Danger

11 Bel Air (Bet Now: $5.50) looks hard to beat for Team Freedman. His last couple of runs have come over 1400m at Flemington, winning two back before going there again a few weeks ago where he seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind So Risque, finishing a close up fourth. Saves his best for Flemington and hard to knock the way he’s racing.

Long Shot

9 He’s Our Bonneval (Bet Now: $9.00) has a great second up record and off the return, he’s in for a good prep. Busuttin/Young trained galloper that was unwanted in betting when resuming at Flemington a few weeks back where he resumed over 1400m, getting back in the run and kept finding the line in a strong return behind So Risque. He can settle closer in the run and still be effective at the end. Dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Jimmysstar

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 King Colorado

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 French Endeavour

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 8

Leg Three: 12

Leg Four: 6, 9, 11, 13, 15

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Source: justhorseracing.com.au

George Barham

George Barham, an accomplished journalist and avid gambling enthusiast, serves as the esteemed Editor-in-Chief at fly-to-australia.com, Australia’s leading source for comprehensive gambling news and insights. With an unwavering passion for both the written word and the ever-evolving world of betting and gaming, George brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the helm of our editorial team.